Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century.

Tropical forests modify the conditions they depend on through feedbacks at different spatial scales. These feedbacks shape the hysteresis (history-dependence) of tropical forests, thus controlling their resilience to deforestation and response to climate change. Here, we determine the emergent hysteresis from local-scale tipping points and regional-scale forest-rainfall feedbacks across the tropics under the recent climate and a severe climate-change scenario. By integrating remote sensing, a global hydrological model, and detailed atmospheric moisture tracking simulations, we find that forest-rainfall feedback expands the geographic range of possible forest distributions, especially in the Amazon. The Amazon forest could partially recover from complete deforestation, but may lose that resilience later this century. The Congo forest currently lacks resilience, but is predicted to gain it under climate change, whereas forests in Australasia are resilient under both current and future climates. Our results show how tropical forests shape their own distributions and create the climatic conditions that enable them.

Orbitally Forced Hyperstratification of the Oligocene South Atlantic Ocean.

Pelagic sediments from the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean contain geographically extensive Oligocene ooze and chalk layers that consist almost entirely of the calcareous nannofossil Braarudosphaera. Poor recovery and the lack of precise dating of these horizons in previous studies has limited the understanding of the number of acmes, their timing and durations, and therefore their likely cause. Here we present a high-resolution, astronomically tuned stratigraphy of Braarudosphaera oozes (29.5-27.9 Ma) from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1264 in the southeastern Atlantic Ocean. We identify seven episodes with highly abundant Braarudosphaera. Four of these acme events coincide with maxima and three with minima in the ~110 and 405-kyr paced eccentricity cycles. The longest lasting acme event corresponds to a pronounced minimum in the ~2.4-Myr eccentricity cycle. In the modern ocean, Braarudosphaera occurrences are limited to shallow marine and neritic settings, and the calcified coccospheres of Braarudosphaera are probably produced during a resting stage in the algal life cycle. Therefore, we hypothesize that the Oligocene acmes point to extensive and episodic (hyper) stratified surface water conditions, with a shallow pycnocline that may have served as a virtual seafloor and (partially/temporarily) prevented the coccospheres from sinking in the pelagic realm. We speculate that hyperstratification was either extended across large areas of the South Atlantic basin, through the formation of relatively hyposaline surface waters, or eddy contained through strong isopycnals at the base of eddies. Astronomical forcing of atmospheric and/or oceanic circulation could have triggered these conditions through either sustained rainfall over the open ocean and adjacent land masses or increased Agulhas Leakage.